Rahul Kumar, Dr. Amit M
Abstract
Abstract: Water resource management in karst regions presents a distinctive set of challenges that conventional hydrological approaches often fail to address adequately. The Dinaric karst of Herzegovina, characterised by highly permeable carbonate formations, complex underground conduit networks, and pronounced seasonal variability in recharge, exemplifies these difficulties. This paper develops a system dynamics model using object-oriented modelling principles in the STELLA environment to analyse the sustainability of water supply in the Municipality of Posušje, with particular attention to the role of the Tribistovo Reservoir. The model integrates climatic inputs, aquifer recharge dynamics, reservoir storage, distribution losses, and sectoral demand to simulate three scenarios between 2025 and 2050: a reference scenario, a climate change scenario without management intervention, and a climate change scenario incorporating optimisation measures. Results indicate that without intervention, the water security index for the system declines from 1.15 to 0.66 by 2050, with the most critical deficit occurring in August when availability drops to 68 L/s against a demand of 116 L/s. Optimisation measures—including network loss reduction from 35% to 20%, summer demand management, and improved reservoir operation—raise the terminal security index to 0.91 and reduce the August deficit by approximately 17.5%. The analysis underscores the importance of adaptive management strategies that address both supply-side and demand-side factors in karst systems, where the temporal mismatch between water availability and consumption is more consequential than annual water balance totals.
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